Trends in the real estate market in the third quarter of 2020

Num. 7 - September 2020

Highlights of the quarter: July - September 2020

We present a new Gtrends Report, corresponding to the third quarter of the year 2020 where Gloval offers an interesting analysis on the trend of the Spanish real estate market, in which new elements of the most current situation of the Spanish economy and its link with the real estate sector appear. Click below to see the full report:

Macroeconomic environment

As expected, the advance data in the year-on-year rate of GDP for the second quarter of the present has been devastating, with -22% compared to the second half of 2019.

Chart 1: Real GDP and Housing Prices (year-on-year change, 2007 – IIT. 2020)

Residential segment

The level of consumer confidence in June has improved by 3.4 points compared to March, perhaps due to the opening of lifting lockdown measures.

Chart 2: Consumer Confidence Indicator. Net Balance.

Logistics/Industrial segment

It is reaffirmed once again that this is the real estate segment that has not experienced a decrease in activity, but rather the opposite, being, in the face of the adversity of movements, confinements and sanitary precautions, an activity of prime necessity for the distribution of goods.

Office segment

As long as the pandemic situation remains out of control, remote work will continue to play a major role in many companies. Since March, rent levels in newly contracted office space have fallen by between 4% and 10% in exchange for extending mandatory deadlines.

Retail segment

Given the very close correlation between the evolution of retail sales consumption and Social Security affiliation, with the affluence in shopping centers, medium or local street level, it is clear that it is not the segment most favored by the state of alarm and evolution of the pandemic since March of this year and will probably continue for the remainder of the year. On the other hand, online sales continue their positive trend.

Hotel segment

Given Spain’s nature as a global tourist and vacation destination, this segment has experienced a hard hit in occupancies, with the drop in the first six months of the year being 55% compared to the same period in 2019.

HOUSING. Evolution of income, average price and investment effort of households

The main indicators of activity (investment, transactions and initiation of new construction) and housing prices, from the
aggregate level have evolved positively until the arrival of the COVID-19, which has caused a total halt in virtually all economic activity. As data after the first quarter of the current year become available, it will be possible to measure the
consequences of this more precisely.


According to the following chart, there is a close correlation between the magnitude of household income and the largest increases in average prices of free housing.

Chart 3: Housing price – Average household income per capita. Regions. 2019

PRIME YIELD. Specialized area in NPL and REO portfolio valuations of Gloval Group

Within the Gloval Group and oriented in a specialized way to the NPL and REO valuation and consultancy, there is Prime Yield company, present in Europe and Latin America.

The main NPL and REO markets are Portugal, Spain, Greece, Brazil, Italy… where actions have been developed for portfolios as Pumas, Mars, Nata II, Sertorius, Neptune, Brick and Atlas III, Pillar, Smart, Neptune, Icon I, Icon II; Hedgehog


Chart 4: Country quota. Valuations of NPL`s. 2019.

Download the GTrends Report Num. 7 here:

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