GTrends
GTrends

Trends in the real-estate market during the third quarter of 2024

Nº 23 - September 2024

Quarterly highlights: July - September 2024.

The new G-Trends is now available, Gloval’s quarterly report that gathers the keys regarding the macro environment, the analysis of real estate segments and delves into certain current issues in the sector. This edition also has a new, more visual and attractive design.

Here is an introduction to some of the topics that we will be covering in this new real estate trends report third quarter 2024:

Balanced Scorecard - IIIQ 2024

cuadro-mando-gtrends-sep24

The average price of free housing. Cycle and Trend (H-P Filter)

This box aims to give a picture of the behaviour of the price of free housing in Spain, an issue that has been under debate for years and which seems to be getting worse and worse in terms of supply and demand, with the logical consequence in terms of price behaviour. The source of the data is the statistics published by the General Council of Notaries, which cover the period from the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2024. The result is that from 2011, still within the financial crisis of 2008, until 2024, passing through the effect of the COVID, prices have continued to rise and this affects household spending in a sensitive way, as well as the increase in the costs of materials, the shortage of labour and recently also the increase in mortgage loans as a result of the increase in reference rates. The prices recorded by the notaries reached their lowest point in the first quarter of 2023 with a compound annual growth rate up to the second quarter of 2024 of 3.68%, i.e. a cumulative average of 3.68% per annum. On the other hand, if we consider the period from 2019 to the present day, taking into account the COVID phenomenon, the cumulative average annual rate is 3.34%, a tenth of a percentage point less than the first period considered in the analysis.

precio-medio-gtrends-sep24

On the other hand, if we look at the behaviour of the cycle of these average prices and the trend component, based on the Hodrick-Prescott Filter, we can see a tube between which the cyclical component oscillates around €150,000 since 2014, with the largest negative oscillation from 2011 until 2013, when it began to rise. The trend component that comes out applying the H-P filter, reflects a recovery of the price since the end of 2014, as can be seen in the graph.

evolucion-gtrends-sep24

In summary, it can be said that the role of housing (free housing) plays a very important role in the smooth running of the economy and financial stability, which requires improvements at the legal level in terms of providing security to the production process of the same from the raw material; land, providing it with adaptability and flexibility in changes of use based on the structural needs, not the short-term (L/P) needs of society, and efficient public-private collaboration to optimise this sector, unlike public-private participation, where the more sensitive political factor or component has to be included in the equation.

The real estate segment of student residences

The specific real estate segment of student residences, also known by its acronym PBSA (Purpose Built Student Accommodation), which is dedicated to the design of this type of accommodation for students who can be residents from undergraduates to university and postgraduate students and whose demand includes both national and international students.

centros-universitarios-gtrends-sep24

You may also see our previous GTrends Reports and our latest GIX Reports, where we analyse the main real-estate economic indicators in Spain.

 

Fill in this form by clicking on the download button and we’ll send you the GTrends Report N. 23:

Let’s have a chat

Let us know what you need and we’ll contact you as soon as possible.

  • Hidden

They trust us